Rumors of War, but Not What You Think

Week 17 Notes

OK - I promise, the next post after this one will be MUCH MORE POSITIVE!!!
Nevertheless...
(OOG WARNING: this is Politically Incorrect. It reflects not my personal views or preferences but simply a speculation on what a World Without Oil would be like. I encourage everyone who reads it to think about it and research it before drawing your own conclusions. Our nation has only existed for a fraction of time in the existence of mankind and our current times – probably the greatest standard of living universally that has ever been achieved – may well bias us to believe that we have somehow moved beyond or above gruesome things our ancestors did. If you believe this, I truly hope you are right, because I’d like to believe it too.)

Some of the speculation about the USA invading Canada for its oil sands was a bit unrealistic although it makes for great fun and games. So lets continue on this kind of speculation. If you’ve ever read “Clash of Civilizations” by Samuel Huntingdon you should be aware that there are “fault lines” of civilizations that are often the source of tension and war. Huntingdon lumps the USA, Canada and Western Europe into a “Christian” sphere, which isn’t really intended to say everyone there is Christian or even religious but kind of portrays a sort of general culture. I know many European reviewers of the book resented this but I suppose there is some truth to the notion. I don’t recall where he put Central & South America; I believe he stated something to the effect that they aren’t “major players” now and only time will tell if they align themselves with the “Christian” sphere or ultimately become their own bloc. If there were hostility between the USA and Mexico, our southern / southwestern border states would be right on that fault line. But lets be a little paranoid here. We know the USA isn’t well loved in the world these days and a world without oil would probably not make things any better. Much of Mexico’s oil wealth is declining, sold to the USA and abroad. It would be easy to convince a Mexican population that most of their economic ills are due to Yankee exploitation. Couple this fact with a disturbing poll about Mexico and Mexicans’ views of the United States (See http://www.zogby.com/soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=4935 ) and then project yourself a few years into the future of a world without oil. In 2005 Texas and New Mexico together produced roughly 1 200 000 barrels of oil per day and this does not include off-shore production in the Gulf of Mexico. With weakening economies and the rise of leftist governments in Central and South America, could our border with Mexico become more dangerous than just a source of illegal immigrants? In the early part of the 1900s Germany tried to persuade Mexico to make war on the USA ( see http://www.firstworldwar.com/source/zimmermann.htm , I’ve read this in other places as well) with a promise of land in Arizona, Texas and New Mexico. Frankly, in a world without oil I could see an invasion of the USA by Mexican forces as a possibility, especially if other nations such as China saw benefits in this and “egged them on”. Another truly horrific effect of such a development would be further estrangement between our American Hispanic communities and African-American and European-American groups within our country. Indeed, some border communities already see themselves as distinctly different from the rest of the USA. As an example, consider the Texas town that adopted Spanish as its official language (http://www.englishfirst.org/elcenezo/elcenezoreuters81699.htm ). The truth of the matter is not as insidious as it may sound, but it still reflects sharp differences in our country’s ethnic cultures. This is not intended to be a warning about illegal (or legal) immigration, simply speculation on what could be, and more a warning about the dangers in a world without oil.

(OOG: this is a work a fiction for the worldwithoutoil.org experiment.)